The Union government could target a fiscal deficit of 5.8-6 per cent of nominal GDP for 2023-24, and it should continue its capital expenditure push and look to simplify the personal income tax regime, economists recommended Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her team during their pre-Budget interaction on Monday. Starting last week, Sitharaman had eight pre-Budget consultations this time. More than 110 invitees representing seven stakeholder groups participated in these meetings, the finance ministry said in a statement. The stakeholder groups included representatives and experts from agriculture and agro-processing industry; industry, infrastructure & climate change; financial sector and capital markets; services and trade; social sector; trade unions and labour organisations; and economists.
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation could ease in the coming months thanks to the arrival of kharif crops, lower international commodity prices, and a pass through of lower input costs to consumers, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review (MER) for October, which was released on Thursday. The MER, however, warned that the global macroeconomic situation remained precarious and a recession in many advanced economies would impact India's exports. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months.
Seven of the meetings will be held in late November or early December at the finance ministry, as is the norm.
Climate and sustainable development financing, multilateral institution reforms, regulation of digital assets, the spillover effect on developing economies from actions of western central banks, energy and food security in the backdrop of war in Europe, and sanctions on Russia and their impact on the global economy are some of the agenda items that India will take up as President of G-20, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Tuesday. India will take over as President of the powerful international grouping on December 1 for a year. There will be around 200 meetings throughout the country, with the summit Heads of State meeting expected to be held in New Delhi next September.
The Economic Survey 2022-23 (FY23), to be presented a day before Union Budget 2023-24 (FY24), is likely to project India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 6 per cent and 7 per cent for FY24, Business Standard has learnt. The broader theme of the Survey could be on how India has dealt with two years of a global pandemic and the ongoing geopolitical disturbance, the strengths and weaknesses that emerged, and what lessons may be learnt. The much-awaited Survey will be the first one by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran and his team in the finance ministry's economic division.
'If you look at the order books of capital equipment companies or money deployed on the ground, there is forward movement in terms of actual investment by the private sector.'
The Centre is in "mission mode" to fill vacancies in government departments and ministries. The Department of Expenditure is currently following up with other wings of the government to expedite pending appointments. Regular follow-ups are being made to fill the vacant positions, so that the stated target of eliminating 1 million vacancies is met by December 2023, ahead of the next Lok Sabha elections. Even as the nodal ministry for filling vacant positions in the government is the Department of Personnel and Training (DoPT), the Department of Expenditure's Establishment Coordination (Personnel) division is providing support for the recruitment drive.
The Serious Fraud Investigation Office (SFIO) has arrested a person who the Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) said has emerged as the mastermind of the racket of incorporating a large number of shell companies with Chinese links in India.
Days after Moody's cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for financial year 2022-23 (FY23) after the official GDP print for the June quarter came in lower than expectations, the global ratings agency said it would maintain its long-term sovereign debt credit rating and outlook on Asia's third-largest economy. "The credit profile of India reflects key strengths, including its large and diversified economy with high growth potential, a relatively strong external position, and a stable domestic financing base for government debt," Moody's said on Tuesday. "We do not expect rising challenges to the global economy, including the impact of the Russia-Ukraine military conflict, higher inflation, and the tightening financial conditions on the back of policy tightening, to derail India's ongoing recovery from the pandemic in 2022 and 2023," it said.
The Centre has garnered around Rs 2,500-3,000 crore in the first five weeks after it imposed a windfall tax on oil and gas companies for the export of fuel, Business Standard has learnt. It is likely that the government will continue with the one-time tax till the Indian crude basket is above $80 a barrel, sources said. The next review of the windfall tax on oil companies is early next week.
The Centre's capital expenditure (capex) outlay for the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2022-23 (FY23) could be close to Rs 1.5 trillion, Business Standard has learnt. As a percentage of full-year capex Budget Estimates (BE) of Rs 7.5 trillion, this could be at similar levels to the trends in the past few fiscal years. It is in the July-September quarter (Q2) of FY23 that capex is expected to pick up, when a bulk of the long-term capex loans to states are expected to be expended.
'It is building the country's infrastructure, and delivering it very efficiently.'
During his first Union Budget in July 2014, former finance minister Arun Jaitley announced the setting up of an institution called 3P India, with an allocation of Rs 500 crore. The intention was to mainstream public-private partnerships (PPPs) in India. The plan was to bring together the capacities of the government and private sector to push PPP projects.
Agra has long been known for the Taj Mahal, but it is also a manufacturing hub filled with micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) that make everything from electronic components to metal products, from paints and chemicals to footwear. And five years after the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the MSMEs here complain that while the indirect tax regime has been transformative, cutting out the need to file multiple taxes, its biggest drawback has been the delay in credit refunds. Whoever you speak to - MSME owners, tax lawyers, or industry bodies like the National Chambers of Industries and Commerce (NCIC), Agra Footwear Manufacturers and Exporters Chamber (AFMEC) and Agra Shoe Manufacturers Association (ASMA) - they all emphasise that the GST continues to face some key challenges.
Union finance secretary T V Somanathan recently said the Centre had saved Rs 10,000 crore in FY22 on interest payments after adopting new accounting mechanisms for central government agencies and centrally sponsored schemes (CSS) for state governments. Speaking at an event, Somanathan said due to these, there was an unspent balance of Rs 1.2 trillion with state agencies from CSS as on March 31, 2022. This means this amount will be reduced from the Centre's borrowing for now and it can be considered a short-term saving for the exchequer.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and chief ministers of states may soon have an in-person interaction on a common platform for the first time since 2019. The seventh meeting of the Governing Council of NITI Aayog is likely to be held in late June or early July, Business Standard has learnt from sources in the Centre and a state. While the date and other details are yet to be finalised, it is learnt that there will be a conclave of chief secretaries of states and Union Territories in Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh, on June 14 and 15, which will decide the agenda of the Council meeting to be held at a later date.
Some states are taking a legal view on the state GST rate and the compensation rules ahead of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council meeting, which is likely to be held in mid-June, said people in the know. While the agenda is still being finalised, several states are likely to take up the matter related to GST compensation and may pitch for its continuation beyond the June 30 deadline. States would like to know how they would divide the compensation collected after June 2022 for payment of principal and interest of compensation shortfall borrowing and arrears to states, sources said.
India's inflation trajectory in the coming months will be influenced more by the geo-political situation due to the war in Europe and its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. However, the country is better placed than most to "weather the storm" and achieve growth of close to 8 per cent in the current fiscal year, the finance ministry said in its latest monthly economic report on Thursday. "Through the channel of imports, elevated global crude and edible oil prices now have a significant impact on India's inflation outlook. "Government measures to keep the prices of these commodities in check, along with the recent hike in policy rates by the RBI, are expected to temper inflationary pressures in the economy," the monthly economic report for April, drafted by the finance ministry's economic division, said.
'Top lines will grow, volume growth will be there, but margins might also be impacted.'
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook report, has slashed its forecast for India's FY23 gross domestic product growth to 8.2 per cent from 9 per cent, saying that higher commodity prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. This was one of the steepest cuts for emerging economies compared to the IMF's January WEO forecasts. Saying that global economic prospects have worsened significantly due to commodity price volatility and disruption of supply chains caused by the war in Europe, IMF cut its global growth outlook for calendar year 2022 to 3.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent, and said both Russia and Ukraine could experience large GDP contractions.
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